#2



I want to add to my above fund again before april, should i just bang it in and not worry its buying less as its price rises.
Originally posted by roxy28


Do you have the risk profile and behavior for that fund? Your question suggests you may not. You are going to suffer a 30% loss at some point. Could be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year. When you invest is not going to change that.

#3



Do you have the risk profile and behavior for that fund? Your question suggests you may not. You are going to suffer a 30% loss at some point. Could be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year. When you invest is not going to change that.
Originally posted by dunstonh


The way you put the 30% loss at some point does make me nervous, so yes you are right as a fairly new investor i did not fully understand that it was certain there will be as big a loss as that.I know there is always risks about the ups and downs.

#4



The way you put the 30% loss at some point does make me nervous, so yes you are right as a fairly new investor i did not fully understand that it was certain there will be as big a loss as that.I know there is always risks about the ups and downs.


It is common for new investors to focus on the upside and not fully understand the downside. That 30% will happen at some point. its not a case of if but when. There will be more frequent 15% loss periods too. Whilst experienced investors will shrug their shoulders and think "here we go again" when the drop occurs, new investors very often get their nerve tested. Some can handle it and every crash that occurs after that gets easier. Some can't and panic and pull out. You typically know the ones that have panicked in the past as they will say they will never invest on the stockmarket again as they lost money. What they are really saying is that they didnt understand what they were doing and invested above their risk profile and have closed their mind to understanding what they did wrong. Don't become one of those.

#5



It is common for new investors to focus on the upside and not fully understand the downside. That 30% will happen at some point. its not a case of if but when. There will be more frequent 15% loss periods too. Whilst experienced investors will shrug their shoulders and think "here we go again" when the drop occurs, new investors very often get their nerve tested. Some can handle it and every crash that occurs after that gets easier. Some can't and panic and pull out. You typically know the ones that have panicked in the past as they will say they will never invest on the stockmarket again as they lost money. What they are really saying is that they didnt understand what they were doing and invested above their risk profile and have closed their mind to understanding what they did wrong. Don't become one of those.
Originally posted by dunstonh


I'm also considering VLS60 and looking at the last 5 years history, the returns have all been positive, unless I've misunderstood the figures. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, but you seem very certain about 30% losses. How often do they occur?

#6



I'm also considering VLS60 and looking at the last 5 years history, the returns have all been positive, unless I've misunderstood the figures. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, but you seem very certain about 30% losses. How often do they occur?
Originally posted by Audaxer


Based on recent history, every 8 years or so. We are about due another.

#7
I think VLS60 could fall further than 30%, if the world suffers both rising interest rates and falling equity prices, at the same time.



I can imagine a fall of 40% or even 50%, probably drawn out over about 2-3 years.

#8



I'm also considering VLS60 and looking at the last 5 years history, the returns have all been positive, unless I've misunderstood the figures. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, but you seem very certain about 30% losses. How often do they occur?
Originally posted by Audaxer




The LifeStrategy funds havent been running for many years. And equities have been pretty much on the up since the last financial crisis in 2008, so the numbers won't show a drop.



When, not if, we have another crash then your equities will do something like this:







They will recover, but it may take a number of years. Are you prepared for that? Can you handle a30-40% crash and a three/four rear recovery?



The upside is that stocks are a lot cheaper to purchase when the a*se has fallen out of the market, so purchasers at the bottom will be quids in in the long term.

#9



I'm also considering VLS60 and looking at the last 5 years history, the returns have all been positive, unless I've misunderstood the figures. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, but you seem very certain about 30% losses. How often do they occur?
Originally posted by Audaxer


An economic cycle is around 10 years. These funds have only been running around 5 years. The period they have existed is only in mostly positive years. The 30% loss potential is within their volatility range.



You would expect 15%-20% losses every 2-4 years and 30% perhaps once in 10 years. However, its like predicting a house in a flood plain with a 1 in 50 year flood potential. It doesnt mean they will be 50 years apart. You could get two in two years.

#10
It's for this reason that I'm not bothering having a trading account.



I have my pension (VLS80), my ISA (VLS60) and anything outside of those will be 3% interest bank accounts.





That being said, VLS60 has not witnessed a crash yet. It may be more sturdy than people think. Guess it depends where the crash is emanating from.

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